The 2011 census puts the world population at some 7 billion. While that may seem like a lot, it is! But according to scientists we are at about 70 percent of the level where life as we know it will be unsustainable. So, what happens when we reach that magic 10 billion number? The movie industry has made good money speculating on just this issue. Remember Hunger Games, Blade Runner, and Soilent Green among others? I even remember one movie where people could only legally live 35 years.
Fiction? Maybe. But what does happen when we reach that magic 10 billion census figure? According to the World Bank, the fertility rate is an average 2.5 children per female, a rate sustained for decades.
So when will we reach saturation? According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects report, the world population is currently growing by approximately 74 million people per year. Current United Nations predictions estimate that the world population will reach 9.0 billion around 2050, assuming a decrease in average fertility rate from 2.5 down to 2.0. According to the UN high estimates, we could reach 9 billion by 2040 and be at 11 billion by 2050.
The World Bank shows a fertility rate decline in most of the productive nations, but the poor, third world countries continue to increase in fertility.
If you believe the scientists that give us that sustainability cutoff at 10 billion people, we could be in big trouble somewhere between 2040 (25 years from now!) and 2050. Of course, there are always those that will believe technology will solve the problem. Others will question even that there is a problem. Unlike the somewhat nebulous factors of climate change, though, population is a value very easily counted and the cause well known. The number of people and rate of change is a solid fact.
There are approximately 15.77 billion acres of inhabitable land on the face of the earth, about 10 percent of which is arable (suitable for growing food). That leaves about 14.2 billion acres for housing, manufacturing, and businesses, and 1.6 billion acres for growing food. Can we grow enough food on 1.6 billion acres to feed 10 or 11 billion people? Will there be enough fresh water for irrigation and human activity? Scientists think this is about the limit of our capacity to sustain life.
The UN is counting on the fertility rates to decrease steadily to 2.0 by 2020 and some magical lower number thereafter. The thing is they don’t say how or why. The world rate has been at 2.5 for decades. Just what will cause that to drop?
The highest fertility rate (CIA World Fact Book) is in Niger and the lowest is in Singapore. Scan the chart and you will find that the poorest countries have the highest fertility rate. Does that mean if we throw money at the poor countries their fertility rate will drop? An absurd notion! But I am certain wealth and education are factors in restraining the fertility rate. Unfortunately, wealth and education also decrease the mortality rate.
A doctor once told me that we live too long. Aside from the fact that this is not something you want to hear from your doctor, it is the truth! Each decade shows an increase in the longevity of people in educated and wealthy countries.
I don’t have ready answers to this knotty problem, and I’m not likely to live long enough to see the worst of it. But this is a problem far bigger than global climate change and one that desperately needs sober discussion. Sadly, it is not even on the to-do list of ours or most other governments.
